Vital Football

Latest Nottingham Forest News

Cholo Plays The Numbers Game

Cholo Plays The Numbers Game

P23 W11 D8 L4 Good enough?

Statistics can be very misleading at times but they`re still reliable enough to give bookies, bankers and insurers (and me) a good living. So what is there to learn from analysing the cold figures at the half way point in the season?

So far we`ve played 23 games for 41 points and so far that`s proved good enough for second place. If we do the same again over the next few months, that will give us 82 points for the season. Whilst that may sound good, historically 82 points will not be enough to guarantee automatic promotion.

It`s true that in 2006 just 79 points did the trick but you needed 86 points in 2003 and 86 points again in 2005. In fact over the last 5 seasons the average number of points needed for automatic promotion has been 84. Using that as our target, we therefore need to get at least another 43 points from the next 23 games - more if possible.

43 points won`t be easy. Whilst we`ve not been bad at home, our away form has been patchy and unfortunately the second half of the season gives us 12 games away to11 at home. Not only that but 5 of the away matches will be against top10 teams including Leeds, Doncaster and Carlisle. If we fail to improve on our current away form of 16 points from 11, these upcoming 12 away games will bring us just 17 points.

That would leave us looking for 26 points from 11 home games to meet our target - that`s 8 wins, 2 draws and one defeat . So far this season we`ve managed 7 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat (25 points from 12) so that`s got to improve too..

We can also look at current form. Halfway through the season we should have settled down to a regular pattern of performance. Well let`s hope we haven`t because a regular pattern of performance like December`s 8 points from 6 games would drop us right out of the frame. Our form needs to stabilise.

To sum up, the figures suggest we will need a minimum of 43 more points to get automatic promotion. This is a very big ask for what is turning out to be yet another unpredictable team, proved by the fact that Forest are no longer the bookies favourite for either of the two top places. It`s going to be very close - too close to call right now.

On past history a projected 82 points would make a place in the play-offs a certainty. Little consolation there with the odds of winning the play-offs 3-1 against before you even kick a ball - not to mention last season`s fiasco plus our record this season in knock out games. Playing off is not a nice prospect but very much on the cards..

But what the stats demonstrate more than anything else is the long term effect of short term dropped points. "We were pleased with the draw" "Look on it as a good bonus point gained" "We played well without much luck" You know the sort of thing.
Fact: every point you drop in the Autumn comes back to haunt you in the Spring.

Cholo.

Writer:Cholo
Date:Wednesday January 2 2008
Time: 5:43PM

Comments

0
Great article there Cholo. Plenty to mull over in that lot.
guinless
02/01/2008 19:40:00
0
You will towards the end of the season again,see you on the 23rd.
MFC67
04/01/2008 15:17:00
0
Edit above: You will fade.:-)
MFC67
04/01/2008 15:18:00
Page 1/1
  1. 1

Login to post a comment

Best of Vital Network

Vital F1 - Blog: Baku Preview

Recent Nottingham Forest Articles

FA End Betting Sponsorship

Late yesterday afternoon, the Football Association announced the result of its three month review of their relationship with gambling companies and that association now comes to an end.

Goalscorer Cummings Will Continue To Improve

Fresh from his arrival at Nottingham Forest, Jason Cummings has been praised by former Hibernian teammate, ex-Forest, Norwich and Aston Villa forward too, Grant Holt.

Sky Confirm TV Selection Windows For 2017/18

With the release of the EFL fixture lists on Wednesday morning, Sky Sports have released their outline giving fans an idea of when television selections will be made this season.

2017/18 Final Weekend Details

With the release of the Premier League fixtures last week and last Wednesday seeing the EFL following suit, the full details for the final weekends across...

Archived Vital Forest Articles

Vital Forest articles from

Site Journalists

Kev Finnegan
no email
Profile
Our Kids Dad
Editor email
Profile

Current Poll (see more polls)

Ipswich MotM
Suggested By:
Smith19%
Mancienne2%
Worrall1%
Mills0%
Lichaj1%
Vaughan4%
Ward45%
Cohen2%
Osborn1%
Carayol1%
Assombalonga21%
Sub-Clough1%
Sub-Brereton1%
Sub-Cash1%
The Vital Football Members League
Latest F1 News
Latest Vital Boxing News
Vital Football Comment

Recent Nottingham Forest Results (view all)

Nottingham Forest Fixtures (view all)

Vital Members League Table

RankNamePoints
1.Apollyon289
2.Pope John XXIII203
3.Widdow168
4.mao tse tung162
5.da fuq124
6.Calvin Plummer100
7.Jimmy Gordon96
8.Ingy95
9.Our Kids Dad89
10.the jock89
Write for Vital Football