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The Punters Thread.
18 July 2010 13:21 Post ID: #217876
Experienced Pro
100050010025
Having placed bets with bookmakers for almost forty years without success decided last year to join a couple of internet exchange sites.
Idea was to take a small betting bank £100 to be exact and bet as much or as little as i had time for without losing the entire bank before season ends.
Much of my spare time over the last eleven years has been spent running through years of racing results and the last couple of years have divided my time checking football also.
I believe now that making a profit from Racing/Football solely with bets placed at bookmakers is IMO almost impossible.
Last season with Betfair/Betdaq i found a whole range of markets
that make betting fun as well as giving the punter more chance to be wiser and more disciplined with the type of bets placed.
Backing/Laying/Trading,all of these can be equally profitable once practiced according to many of the more experinced Betfairians.
Would be interesting to hear from other reds fans that maybe take a deeper interest in their sports betting.
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18 July 2010 13:51 Post ID: #217913 - in reply to #217876
I know fook all about Horse racing but will defo listen to football bets.
Last season which was my first betting I made a fairly healthy profit (although not enough to quit the day job) I like to bet £1 on about 7/8 teams in accumulator obviously most of the time these don't come in but when they do you can win anything up to about £1,500 which for a quid I reckon is pretty good, wish I'd betted on Forest losing away and winning at home a few times as well.

Edited by McWoany 18/7/2010 13:54
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18 July 2010 15:09 Post ID: #217957 - in reply to #217913
10/3 (Victor Chandler) Billy NOT to be manager come last game next season looks value considering the current climate of the managers tenure.

15/8 (also V/C) looks a steal for Forest to have less than 7 points from the 4 august league games. We're traditionally slow starters and have 4 potentially difficult opening games.
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18 July 2010 15:21 Post ID: #217963 - in reply to #217957
Nottingham Forest Legend
500020001000100100100
I like a heinze myself, have one most weeks, 6 results spread over 57 different best (everything from doubles upwards). Generally need 4 to come in to break even which isn't too tricky, you're not gonna make £1,500 but for a £2.85 stake you can come away with anything from £30 upwards.

Not massive money, but keeps me interested in soccer saturday if forest aren't playing.
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18 July 2010 15:30 Post ID: #217967 - in reply to #217963
A bet I often like is to pick 3 teams towards the top of the league who are playing at home against 3 teams towards the bottom. Then do 27 x $1 correct score trebles of 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0. Its a bit of a glory hunt but if it comes in the rewards can be massive.
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18 July 2010 15:45 Post ID: #217972 - in reply to #217967
50002000200025
Vital forest would like to remind people to gamble responsibly...

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/responsible-gambling

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18 July 2010 16:36 Post ID: #217999 - in reply to #217972
nffcbasford - 18/7/2010 15:45

Vital forest would like to remind people to gamble responsibly...

http://www.gambleaware.co.uk/responsible-gambling



Vital might, Forest wouldn't that's why were sponsored by a bookies
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18 July 2010 16:37 Post ID: #218002 - in reply to #217876
Experienced Pro
100050010025
Done plenty of accas in old days when fixed odds first arrived and now do the odd one but in a different way.
How many times have we had a 6 game acca go tits up on probably the strongest team of the 6 and how many times on the last team.
When i do one now i tend to choose the best bet in prem/ccc/league1and2/LaLiga/SerieA,along with another from a choice of France/Dutch/German/Belgian, or some European leagues that would surprise.
If the acca is inteded to make say £150 for £5 then i am able to change my position after the first four win,The following is an instance.
After four winners at a price of say 4/6 then £38.50 odd is running on to the next game and that team is also 4/6 and would grow the running total to £64ish.
It is a decent profit at £38 0r £64 but i would look to recover my stake after the 4th game.
On the exchanges you are able to lay teams as well as back them to win and the fact it is possible to lay a team gives the punter with the acca an advantage.
Imagine you and a mate are sat watching a spanish game in the pub on Sat night and you have placed an identicle acca.
The first 4 have won in the afternoon and the game you are watching involves your next team at 4/6.
You have both placed the bet with Laddys and as watch the game you suspect your team are second best and unlikely to WIN,If either of you had an exchange account you could Lay your team at a shade less than evens and although your acca would be lost if your team failed to win the fact that you layed them wins £5 for your exchange account.
Effectively you have recovered your stake on a losing acca.
IF the 5th team wins then the acca stands at around £64 and this is where the real insurance kicks in.
The last game is your team at odds of say 4/6,You can now Lay that team and if they let you down you stand to make a profit on any outcome.
On your exchange account Lay Seville @4/6 for £25,This will cost your account £16.66 if they win but credit your account with £25 if they dont.
To summerise then imagine Seville are your last acca bet and they win then Laddys pay you £106 ish,
Deduct from that the 2 insurance bets you had on account that cost £22ish and £84 is a damn good profit.
If the 5th game lost you have recovered your stake and if you went down on the last game you have made a £20 profit through your account,Happy days for a losing acca i think you will agree.
For those unfamiliar with exhanges this will be difficult to take in,in fact it has not been easy for me to explain either without a live betting market and the fact that i am not a writer.
Once the season begins this will become easier to understand as you see it working or not of course.
Just one example and i admit i to being a novice myself but hope it will be of interest to someone.

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20 July 2010 23:00 Post ID: #219421 - in reply to #217876
First Team Squad
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I started a betting thread the other day, so will defo keep an eye out here. As mentioned previously you can get 6/4 that Joe Hart starts for England in our qualifier in September vs Bulgaria. Given is injured so he'll start season as no.1 at city. Also massive pressure from FA/fans/media to blood younger players, add in the fact that capello himself rated Hart as his best GK at the WC, but opted for experience then it's a no brainer.

Basically only injury will stop him playing, so fingers crossed!
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20 July 2010 23:15 Post ID: #219432 - in reply to #217876
First Team Squad
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Latets odds on VC now 11/8 so obviously a few people are having some of this :-)

Stilll worth a punt though!
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21 July 2010 17:09 Post ID: #219815 - in reply to #217876
Nottingham Forest Legend
50002000500100100252525
i stick to singles overall. I used to be a gambler back in uk for many years, a few great years, far too many bad ones. I seem to have learned in a roundabout way and now have a million times fewer bets.

Several times last year I had lump ons when I just knew we would win a game, the first game against Fester this year for example when we were really in gear we were about 2/1 away and that was a massive buy for me, as much on this game as I would have had in 3 months in the old days.

So yeahh, two ways of gambling for sure, a few hard bets with high strike rate or the more lottery style accumulators where every extra game negates your chances of winning exponentially and the prize is massive odds.

I just raked in on Spain at the world cup, again in the past I would have had a bet in every game, this time just a maximum bet on them to win outright. No England bets!

.....................

Actually, talking of England, if you wanna know a story... when I was gambling a lot I had a year or two when I was doing really well on the spread betting in football. Shirt numbers of goalscorers etc. I was about 12k in profit during one season when I decided to have a bet on the England game. I backed Paul Scholes in a player points during the game, i.e he gets points for every pass, goal etc and loses them for free kicks, bookings etc. I bought him at about 50 points for about 100 pound a point, thinking he could get about 70 points. He got booked in first few minutes (-25) and sent off not that long afterwards (-50) Anyway, it wiped out my entire stack in one hit and that as the end of my gambling career.. so be careful in spread betting, use limits where appropriate!
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23 July 2010 07:21 Post ID: #220683 - in reply to #217876
Forest Lad

Do you know what the odds are that Billy WILL be in charge at the end of the season. I don't by into all this nonsense that he is trying to manufacture a pay off.
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23 July 2010 09:40 Post ID: #220732 - in reply to #217876
Established Player
5001001002525
I have been betting for a good few years now and have started to make decent money over the last three or four years.
The best advice that I would give anyone is:
Regardless of how much you bet try and adopt a professional approach.
Keep records of your bets - profit and loss etc.
Avoid the get rich quick bets, have a plan to make money over a period of time.
Try and have a betting bank, however modest, so you are not constantly dipping into your savings.
Constantly betting on accumulators is the quick way to the poor house.
Stick to single bets; I have found the most profitable ones to be on the Asian Handicap market and on the over/under 2.5 goals markets.
Betfair is the place to get the best value.
You would be surprised how much fun you can have by being disciplined.
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23 July 2010 14:57 Post ID: #220873 - in reply to #220732
50002000200025
Yossarian - 23/7/2010 09:40

I have been betting for a good few years now and have started to make decent money over the last three or four years.
The best advice that I would give anyone is:
Regardless of how much you bet try and adopt a professional approach.
Keep records of your bets - profit and loss etc.
Avoid the get rich quick bets, have a plan to make money over a period of time.
Try and have a betting bank, however modest, so you are not constantly dipping into your savings.
Constantly betting on accumulators is the quick way to the poor house.
Stick to single bets; I have found the most profitable ones to be on the Asian Handicap market and on the over/under 2.5 goals markets.
Betfair is the place to get the best value.
You would be surprised how much fun you can have by being disciplined.


I've just noticed what this thread is called...

I bet David Pleats had a look on it!
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23 July 2010 17:42 Post ID: #220927 - in reply to #217876
Established Player
5001001002525
Kerb crawling on Betfair!
It might happen but I wouldnt bet on it.
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23 July 2010 19:33 Post ID: #220970 - in reply to #217876
First Team Squad
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Redspark, current odds with VC on Billy being manager on May 8th 2011 are:


Yes = 1/5
No = 10/3
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24 July 2010 07:56 Post ID: #221072 - in reply to #217876
Thanks Fizzy

Hardly tempting though is it at least VC is as confident as me that Billy is staying.

I will stick with my first scorer and correct score doubles.
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